The multiplication of centenarians would reveal the existence of a mortality plateau, proof that life would have no fixed limits. Controversy.
Life span should not be confused with life expectancy.
The considerable increase in life span during the twentieth century is the result of the decline in infant mortality and mortality from infectious diseases.
At the same time, the limits of life are changing little or not at all; it’s only the number of people approaching these limits that has increased!
Life expectancy, a concept to be compared with longevity records, changes little. The record set by Jeanne Calment, who died at the age of 122 in 1997, should not make us forget that there were centenarians in ancient times.
It’s only in recent decades that the increase in life span in developed countries has been mainly due to a decline in mortality at older ages. The now considerable number of centenarians provides information on whether life expectancy is increasing, or may increase.
By studying mortality beyond the age of 105, researchers (1) have shown that the risk of death, which increases exponentially up to the age of 80, slows down from the age of 80 onwards, then remains constant from the age of 105.
This is referred to as a mortality plateau at the end of life, a hypothesis that would make it possible to extend the fixed limits of life and thus increase life expectancy. The authors of this study mention that similar models exist in other species (some insects for example).
Caution must be exercised when making generalizations. To date, the evidence for this plateau effect in mortality at high ages has not been confirmed; the conclusions of recent studies are even contradictory (2).
One piece of evidence for the mortality plateau hypothesis would be that the survival record of Jeanne Calment, 122 years old, is quickly exceeded!
To be continued…
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(1) : BARBI, Elisabetta, LAGONA, Francesco, MARSILI, Marco, et al. The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers. Science, 2018, vol. 360, no 6396, p. 1459-1461.
(2) : DANG, Linh Hoang Khanh, CAMARDA, Carlo Giovanni, OUELLETTE, Nadine, et al. The question of the human mortality plateau. Demographic Research, 2023, vol. 48, p. 321-338.
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.11
